Hurricane Melissa: Tropical Storm Tracker 2025

The good news is that current forecast models predict that, like most other tropical cyclones in Atlantic hurricane season 2025, the US, including the East Coast of Florida should miss a direct hit from Melissa.

There has been a mysterious lull in hurricane activity in America  this season, much to the relief of residents and businesses who are used to being battered by tropical storms in the summer and fall.

For the first time in 10 years, "The East Coast of the United States has been spared a direct hit from a hurricane [in 2025], and forecasters’ models suggest that it is likely to avoid Melissa, too." ^[3]

Most reputable forecast models now show Hurricane Melissa reaching Cuba then moving in the direction of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, far away from the Florida coast.

As The New York Times reports, "Typically, by this time in an Atlantic season, at least three hurricanes or tropical storms would have made landfall in the United States. But with 13 named storms so far this year — five of them hurricanes — the only one to make U.S. landfall was Tropical Storm Chantal, which came ashore in South Carolina in early July."

For example, Hurricane Humberto in September 2025 briefly had the makings of a record-breaking tropical cyclone but largely fizzled out before reaching the continental US.

It's not that there have been fewer hurricanes and tropical storms, it's that none have yet made landfall.^[4]

Much of the damage to life and property caused by tropical cyclones comes from hurricane landfall. 

Both tropical storms and hurricanes are types of tropical cyclones — what differentiates them is wind speed.

Tropical storms can be devastating to human life and property, but they don't meet the criteria for being classified as hurricanes because the wind speeds never exceed 74mph.

A recent example of a natural disaster caused by a tropical storm are the devastating floods that took many lives in Texas Hill Country earlier in 2025.

Like hurricanes, tropical storms have names and it was the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry that triggered the flash floods in Kerr County, TX.

By international definition, a tropical storm officially becomes a hurricane when its maximum sustained winds reach 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour).

Hurricane categories are determined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a five-level system that classifies hurricanes based on the highest wind speeds the storm reaches, measured in miles or kilometers per hour.

For example, a Category 5 hurricane like Melissa has the following characteristics: 

Category 5 Hurricanes

Wind Speed: 157+ mph (252+ km/h)

Typical Damage: Catastrophic; most homes destroyed, and areas left uninhabitable for weeks or longer.

Despite a significant impact on vital infrastructure — particularly communications systems and air travel — early reports indicate that major population centers in Jamaica, like the capital city of Kingston, have avoided widespread casualties from Hurricane Melissa to date.