Tornado Watch 2025: Key Events and Forecasts
Severe weather season in the US got off to an early start in February 2025 and hasn’t let up since.
Giant hailstorms and severe winds have hit much of the country, and, as of June 2025, there have been over 850 tornadoes across the US.
Between February and May, tornado activity resulted in over 60 deaths.
Scientists believe that atmospheric patterns in the Pacific North American (PNA) region, such as El Niño and La Niña, significantly impact the frequency and severity of tornado activity.
The 2025 tornado season has been more active than usual so far…
Looking forward, what can we expect?
(Source: NOAA)
Overview of Tornado Activity in 2025
As of June 13th, there have been 873 confirmed tornadoes in the US.
Sixty-three deaths have been attributed to tornado activity, with Missouri and Kentucky being the hardest hit by fatal events.
The largest ever March tornado outbreak on record impacted much of the Midwest and Southeast from March 13-16, 2025, with over 118 confirmed tornadoes and up to 190 mph winds.
(Source: ICCSafe)
The Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale measures tornado intensity based on estimated wind speeds and expected damage.
Diaz, Arkansas, was devastated by a rare EF-4 twister on March 14th. You can see the scale of the damage to the small city in the video above.
According to Weather Underground, EF-4 tornadoes, like the one that occurred in Diaz, are expected to cause: “Devastating damage. Well-constructed houses and whole frame houses [are] completely leveled. Cars are thrown, and small missiles are generated.
On May 28, Prof. Kelsey Malloy at the Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences at the University of Delaware wrote, “The month of May is continuing the momentum, with violent tornado outbreaks May 15-16 and May 18-20.
According to the New York Times, 2024 was the most intense year for tornadoes in a decade.
It remains to be seen if 2025 keeps or accelerates its pace.
Climate Drivers Impacting Tornadoes: ENSO, PNA, and More
While forecasting individual tornadoes with certainty remains elusive, our understanding of the key climate patterns that influence their seasonal frequency and regional distribution is becoming increasingly clear.
Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Tornadoes
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern originating in the tropical Pacific that significantly impacts global weather through fluctuations in sea surface temperatures.
Research shows that ENSO phases have distinct effects on tornado activity:
La Niña (cooler waters): Creates atmospheric conditions that favor increased tornado and hail activity across the central United States
El Niño (warmer waters): Generally suppresses tornado formation, leading to fewer severe weather events
Neutral conditions: Represent baseline tornado activity levels
According to Nature, ENSO modulates tornado occurrence by "altering the large-scale environment," with fewer tornadoes occurring during El Niño and more during La Niña conditions.
ENSO conditions often persist into early spring, providing a basis for seasonal prediction of severe thunderstorm activity.
Role of Pacific North America (PNA) Pattern in Shaping Tornado Activity
The Pacific North America (PNA) pattern is a regional atmospheric circulation pattern that directly influences weather across North America.
La Niña's cooler sea temperatures tend to favor the negative phase of PNA, which correlates with increased precipitation and creates atmospheric conditions more conducive to tornado development in the Southern United States.
Research from the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory suggests that understanding these global ocean conditions may provide "long-lead capability to alert the public and decision makers of heightened risk for more violent tornado outbreaks over a season for a given geographical region," though the research is still ongoing.
Are Tornadoes Becoming More Deadly?
From a historical perspective, no. Tornado death rates per capita have dropped by about 90% since the early 1900s.
According to the Washington Post, tornado deaths averaged 1.8 people per million from 1875 to 1925, but are now around 0.16 per million.
Of course, during the early 20th century, Doppler radar technology for weather forecasting, tornado warnings, and sophisticated emergency response systems didn’t exist, and the US population was far smaller.
Despite the lower historical death rate, some alarming trends indicate that tornadoes have been getting more dangerous in recent years.
Tornadoes that occur at night are nearly twice as fatal as twisters that happen during the day, and they’re becoming more common.
According to National Geographic, “The growing threat of nocturnal tornadoes isn’t random. It’s the result of shifting storm seasons, regional vulnerabilities, and a changing climate.”
The Shift in Tornado Locations and Implications
“Tornado Alley” usually refers to a zone in the central US centered in the Great Plains and encompassing north Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.
The American Meteorological Society says “the term has little scientific value,” but the media frequently uses it to describe an area of the US that has traditionally suffered the most tornadoes.
However, Tornado Alley has seen fewer tornadoes in recent years, with tornadoes striking further east, often in more heavily populated areas.
Winter tornadoes are also becoming more frequent from the Southeast to the Midwest.
Daniel Chavas, associate professor at Purdue University, writes, “This eastward shift is likely making tornadoes deadlier. Tornadoes in the Southeastern U.S. are more likely to strike overnight, when people are asleep and cannot quickly protect themselves, which makes these events dramatically more dangerous.”
How to Stay Safe During a Tornado
Tornado detection and forecasting are constantly improving…
Even still, the time between a tornado warning being issued and the event occurring is only about 10-15 minutes on average.
It pays to prepare in advance.
Here are the basic steps to stay safe during a tornado.
Shelter
The safest place to shelter from a tornado depends mainly on your dwelling type or where you are when the twister hits.
Houses: If you live in a house with a basement, get into the cellar as soon as possible. If not, retreat to an interior room with no (or the fewest) windows. Stay well away from outside walls and windows.
Apartments: Most apartment building have tornado and hurricane preparedness plans. Frequently, residents are told to gather in a hallway or staircase on the ground floor or in the basement. Use the stairs, not the elevator to get to your shelter.
Mobile Homes: Trailers and motorhomes are NOT safe to shelter in during a tornado. Many large trailer parks have designated hurricane and tornado shelters. If not, find a sturdy building nearby, such as a neighbors house or community center, BEFORE severe weather season.
In Your Vehicle: Despite what you may have seen in a movie, trying to outrun a tornado is rarely a good idea. It’s likely safer to exit the vehicle and find low ground.
Outside: Quickly find the lowest ground. Lie flat and cover your head with your hands.
Emergency Supplies
Ensure that your designated shelter is well equipped with emergency supplies. For example:
Water (1 gal/person/day)
Non-perishable food for several days
First-aid kit
Extra cell phone batteries or a rechargeable Power Bank
Flashlight and extra batteries
Battery-powered or hand-crank radio for NOAA Weather Radio Alerts
Medications
Find out more about emergency supply kit recommendations from FEMA.
Backup Power
Downed power lines and extended outages are common occurrences in tornadoes, hurricanes, other extreme weather events, and natural disasters.
EcoFlow’s whole-home backup power solutions can provide enough off-grid electricity to see you through extended blackouts.
For tornado preparedness, a portable power station like EcoFlow DELTA 3 Plus can provide essential backup for appliances and personal electronic devices in your basement or wherever you plan to shelter.
Unlike gas generators, EcoFlow’s portable power stations are safe for indoor use.
Final Thoughts
Even if you don’t live in Tornado Alley, tornadoes are becoming increasingly common in heavily populated areas across the US.
Even with sophisticated weather forecasting and alert systems, tornadoes frequently happen with little warning, often 10-15 minutes or less.
EcoFlow offers an extensive range of home backup battery solutions and whole-home generators, like DELTA Pro Ultra, that provide emergency power during extended outages.
Check out our selection today — and stay safe!