Axial Seamount: What Happens If the Volcano Erupts?
Almost five thousand feet beneath the ocean’s surface, the Pacific Northwest’s most active volcano is ready to erupt.
Many researchers believe that an eruption of Axial Seamount will occur before the end of 2025 or in 2026.
Washington State and Oregon residents and people in neighboring states are understandably nervous about the eruption of Axial Seamount and its potential impacts on land and sea.
The last volcanic eruption in the PNW that caused significant loss of human life was Mount St. Helens in 1980—well within living memory.
Fortunately, the risk potential of a volcano erupting on land is far greater than that of one erupting on the ocean floor.
So what can we expect when Axial Seamount blows?
Read on to find out.
How Will the Axial Seamount Eruption Impact the Pacific Northwest?
An Axial Seamount eruption is not expected to pose a direct threat to people in the Pacific Northwest or nearby states.
Despite being the most active volcano in the region, Axial Seamount is not expected to pose any danger to human life or property.
Situated approximately 250 nautical miles off the Oregon coast and about 4,600 feet below sea level, Axial Seamount's depth and distance from land significantly reduce the likelihood of noticeable effects on the surface – even if you were directly above it in a boat.
There are multiple reasons that experts and scientists aren’t concerned about the volcano’s impending eruption on human life. Here’s a summary:
Distance: The 250-mile distance from Oregon’s shores makes it highly unlikely that Axial Seamount’s eruption will immediately impact coastal communities or trigger significant follow-on events like:
Tsunamis: Underwater volcanic eruptions can cause tsunamis. However, earthquakes are far more likely to produce tsunamis in areas like the PNW’s Cascadia Subduction Zone or Japan. Even if Axial Seamount causes tsunami-type waves, it’s expected that they would dissipate long before reaching shore.
Ashfall: Even if the eruption causes ash, it’s unlikely to reach the coast in significant quantities.
Earthquakes: Volcanic activity can trigger seismic events, but an Axial Seamount eruption causing a large earthquake on land is considered extremely unlikely. Destructive earthquakes in the PNW — such as those associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone — are caused by stress buildup and release along tectonic plate boundaries, not undersea volcanoes. Small localized quakes from undersea eruptions can occur, but are unrelated to big CSZ events.
Depth: The water pressure at 4,600 feet below sea level is over 2000 pounds per square inch (PSI) — enough to crack and crush a bowling ball. The extreme pressure has a significant dampening effect on the explosiveness of a potential Axial Seamount eruption. Additionally, the powerful steam explosions that can occur at shallower depths are unlikely, as the water in proximity to the volcano is already extremely hot.
Eruption Type: The eruptions we’ve seen at Mount St. Helens and, more recently, Mount Etna in Italy are characterized by violent explosions that send ash and debris into the atmosphere. However, Axial Seamount’s previous eruptions have resulted in lava flows that eventually form a new seafloor — not the disaster movie variety.
Researchers aren’t making these predictions in a vacuum.
If Axial Seamount does erupt this year or next, it will be the fifth time in less than 30 years.
Axial Seamount eruptions occurred in:
1998
2011
2014
2015
and likely many more times before comprehensive modern monitoring began.
The primary reason that Axial Seamount is studied so extensively isn’t because of its threat potential, but rather because of what it can teach researchers about underwater volcanic activity and its impact on ocean ecosystems.
Researchers Study Axial Seamount to Gain Knowledge on Underwater Volcanic Activity
An Axial Seamount eruption is unlikely to have any negative short-term impact on people and property in Oregon and Washington, but it provides many opportunities for researching underwater volcanic activity.
In keeping with our cultural moment, the eruption will even be live-streamed — at least if it occurs at 2:00, 5:00, 8:00, and 11:00 EDT or PDT, day or night.
(Source: OOI)
Every three hours, an Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) HD video camera broadcasts live from Axial Seamount in 14-minute bursts.
The eruption's initial, most intense stage is expected to last about an hour, but it’s expected to continue for at least a month.
The camera is installed 1 mile underwater and 250 miles off the Oregon coast. It’s mounted near a “14-foot-tall actively venting hot spring deposit called ‘Mushroom’ located within the ASHES vent field on Axial Seamount.”
Hot spring vents from Mushroom already reach temperatures as high as 500°F, but still, there is abundant sealife.
Unfortunately, the snails, sea spiders, tube worms, and other creatures in the vicinity won’t survive the eruption of Axial Seamount.
However, marine ecosystems impacted by underwater volcanic eruptions tend to bounce back quickly.
UW School of Oceanography professor, Deborah Kelley, studies how submarine volcanoes like Axial Seamount actually support life in a deep-sea environment without sunlight.
“In 2011, we saw one of the venting areas become completely covered in lava flows,” Kelley said. “It wiped everything out. But what’s fascinating is that when we came back three months later, there were animals and bacteria colonizing the area again. They’re surprisingly resilient ecosystems.”
For researchers, observing the Axial Seamount eruption provides a valuable opportunity to learn more about undersea volcanoes and their impact on aquatic life.
According to Maya Tolstoy, professor at UW College of the Environment, “It’s such an amazing opportunity to observe one of our planet’s most important processes, and I think we’re all looking forward to it.”
Maya Tolstoy is a marine geophysicist specializing in seafloor earthquakes and volcanoes and the Maggie Walker Dean of the University of Washington College of the Environment.
Final Thoughts
If the clickbait headlines had you worried about the Axial Seamount eruption, you can breathe a sigh of relief.
Thanks to its depth and distance from land, among other factors, the undersea eruption is highly unlikely to have any short-term impact on Oregon or Washington State residents, or elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest.
Axial Seamount is unrelated to seismic activity from tectonic shifts in the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
However, the region remains vulnerable to onland volcanic activity and extreme weather events.
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